Because shooting is Risky, that's why

It must be an Econo-sized day, today. The good folks at Free Darko weigh in on the The Wages of Wins debate with some original analysis.

John Lott v Freakonomics (Cont'd)

Mary Rosh is creaming in her pants today. Oh, wait. Is that libelous? Implying that a woman who doesn't exist is excited...is that like saying that John R. Lott, Jr. shot a load into his shorts?

Judge Ruben Castillo of the U.S. District Court in Chicago handed down a decision last week allowing crazy-man's^* defamation lawsuit against Steven D. Levitt to go forward. If it makes it to trial, is John-John going to dress in drag and appear as a character witness?

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^*Uh-oh. Now I'm in for it. I called him crazy. He's going to cry to his mommy and then sue me. 'Cause technically, he's not crazy. "Mary Rosh" is just a sock puppet he uses to stroke his own ego. And sometimes his teenage son uses it too. I'm not sure what a psychiatrist would make of that; technically it's neither a manifestation of an Electra nor Oedipal complex.

Competitive Balance in Baseball vs Other Sports

More on "The Wages of Wins"...unlike my previous post, this will be mostly complimentary. :)

Chapter Four, "Baseball's Competitive Balance Problem?" attempts to establish whether commentators, owners, and Bud Selig are right to believe that "competition on the playing field has become acutely imbalanced."⁽¹⁾ The authors conclude that the imbalance, while fluctuating upward in the past four or five years, has remained fairly consistent over the last 50 or 60 years. The methodology is not completely original to them, but tells a compelling story. In particular, their comparison of competitive balance across sports inspired me to post.

They found that football and soccer have the highest rate of balance⁽²⁾ relative to the other major sports, with basketball (the NBA and ABA) the lowest. They argue that one of the primary reasons for this is the relatively large pool of potential participants for the former. As they love to say, there's a "short supply of tall people", so basketball should be prone to imbalance; whereas soccer and football have very large pools of potential participants with the requisite physical attributes.

My only question is whether the authors took relegation into account when calculating the Noll-Scully for the various soccer leagues. It's much easier to maintain a high level of competitive balance when you toss your bottom three teams to the minors and bring up overachievers. It effectively creates an N-team league out of N+3 teams' worth of players.

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¹ Costas, Bob. 2000 Fair Ball: A Fan's Case for Baseball. From the forward by Andrew Zimbalist, referenced from Berri, Schmidt, and Brook.

² 30,000-foot view of the measurement used to determine balance: the Noll-Scully, which takes the idealized standard deviation (determined by schedule length for the league) and compares it to the actual standard deviation.

The Gift of Good Data Analysis

A few months back, I bagged on some of the analysis I was getting second-hand from a Malcolm Gladwell review of this book. I did go to the website of one of the authors in order to better argue my points, but I hadn't read the book and was therefore treading on shaky ground. I picked up the book shortly thereafter and started reading it, but was distracted by other shiny things. I'm coming back to it today and re-reading the second chapter. Unless there's some serious scholarship being edited out for the sake of sales, I've already got big problems with the way Berri, Schmidt, and Brook do their jobs.⁽¹⁾

Chapter Two is entitled "Much Talking, Little Walking". The issue is work stoppages, and, as should be clear from the title, the effect on attendence and viewership upon return to play. At least, it should be about that. Unfortunately, they made a crucial error in selecting their data which makes a hash of their conclusion.

Economics⁽²⁾, like all applied math fields, is data driven. Moreover, it is data-sensitive. A very small change in a constant can play havoc with results. Choosing inputs poorly can have similar effect. (I just started to write the formulaic "far be it from me to question..." and decided to avoid the hypocrisy. Of course I'm going to question. Of course I'm that arrogant.) Here is their conclusion, summarized in their own words:

To hammer home this point, consider one last piece of evidence. Population since 1980 in the United States and Canada has grown approximately 30%. In this same time period, average attendance for Major League Baseball teams grew from 1.65 million in 1980 to 2.43 million in 2004. A bit of quick math reveals that this represents a 47% increase. Despite repeated labor disputes people are coming out to the ballpark in much greater numbers. Given these numbers it is hard to believe the conventional wisdom that the repeated fights between owners and players dramatically harm professional sports.

Although we can go back and forth on the 1994-95 experience, we should not lose sight of the larger picture the data are telling. In our study of the NBA, NHL, NFL, and the 1981 strike in baseball, the data speak clearly. Again, we began this research believing that fans did respond negatively to strikes and lockouts. Despite our prior belief, we go where the data take us. And the data clearly take us to a very different answer. Consumers of sport may publicly talk, but the data show no evidence that many fans choose to walk.

In the endnotes for the chapter, the authors give us their data sources:

For our published academic articles, the attendance data were taken from a number of sources. For MLB, the attendance data were obtained for the years 1901-2000 from The Sporting News Complete Baseball Record Book (2001). The NFL data began in 1936 and concluded in 1999 and were obtained from The Sporting News Pro Football Guide (2000). Finally, attendance data for the NHL were obtained for the period 1960-2000 from Total Hockey (2001). Updates for these series, as well as the NBA attendance data employed, were taken from the web site of noted sports economist Rodney Fort. www.rodneyfort.com/SportsData/BizFrame.htm.

Did you see it? What negates the conclusion?

The datasets chosen look at a very special, self-selecting group of fans: those who attend games in person. Lori and I have season tickets to the Suns. We go to a lot of games. When we can't go, we make a very big effort to get someone in our seats because there's a financial incentive to do so.⁽³⁾ Besides that, we're basketball fans and enjoy going to games. On any given night, there are about 16K fans in the stands. The number doesn't really vary much. What does vary is television viewship.

Here's a quick example of the sort of ratings data that should have been included, from Baseball Almanac. I'm not qualified to analyze the data; in fact, I'm not sure I can even correctly define how it should be analyzed⁽⁴⁾ but I can say a few things: the drop-off of 7.4 ratings points from 1998 to 1999 ('99 being the lockout year) in the NBA finals (roughly 8.1 million households⁽⁵⁾) was probably not just because of the Jordan Effect; and compared to the roughly 12.4 million households who did watch in '99, the 16K or so who can fit into a given arena on a given evening (at approximately .1% of total viewers) probably represent less than the margin of error in the Nielsen measurements.⁽⁶⁾

Again, I'm no economist. Frankly, I don't know my ass from a Laffer curve, but I do know quite a bit about measurement and data analysis. If the analysis in this second chapter is indicative of the type of work in the rest of the book, I may be boring y'all some more in the next few days. This is just sloppy scholarship.

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¹No, I do not expect serious math in a book directed at the mass market; neither do I expect sloppy, indefensible logic based on incorrect or incomplete suppositions.
²Did I study econ? No. I studied math, physics, and software engineering. The relationship? I know all too well the problems of inaccurate measurements and incorrect inputs. While I am not accomplished with the specific tools in the Economist's Utility Belt, they bear striking similarities in both intended effect and side effect. Aim that Econo-rang a half degree off and you don't stop Doc Stagflation.
³Because it's in the team's best interests to have sell-outs - good for PR and concessions - they give us a rebate on our following year's ticket package (typically in the 5-10% range) if our seats are always occupied.
⁴I want to be clear: I know these World Series ratings are almost useless, so don't bother pointing that out to me. Ratings for televised sports are most impacted by the teams (and maybe matchups) involved, so except in cases where teams repeated in the WS in pre- and post-strike years, there's not much to be gained. I wanted an example of ratings data and this was readily available. I'd think the authors, given a few hours effort, could do much better. Besides, the fragmentation of television viewership due to the increase in entertainment choices over the past two or three decades most certainly is the biggest factor in the downward trend in these ratings.
⁵A ratings point, in 2005, represented approximately 1.1 million households.
⁶Sorry for relying on Wikipedia data for the so much of this paragraph. I got lazy in tracking down more reliable and definitive sources.

How do I get on the Security Council???

Can I form a tiny island nation and get a UN seat? I'd love to have John Bolton bribing me.

John Lott v Freakonomics

Hi. My name is Mary Rosh and I'm guest posting here today. You might remember me from such blog postings as "John R. Lott is a Genius", "John Lott is Wicked Cool", "John Lott Fathered my Love Child: And He's Awesome", and "Steven Leavitt is a Poopy-head". Well let me tell you: it's all true!

I had him for a PhD level empirical methods class when he taught at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania back in the early 1990s, well before he gained national attention, and I have to say that he was the best professor that I ever had.

Professor Lott is suing the big poopy-head for libel and I know that I'll be there, supporting him every step of the way. He's just so insightful...it's like he's right inside my head. He knows my every thought!